Energy sources are changing, and society is adjusting to rely on more renewable sources to move society forward. The International Energy Agency (IEA) shared predictions from the World Energy Outlook that says 2030 will see the following:
With these changes predicted and the increasing focus on renewable energy efforts in New York, the potential for growth and success is currently on the rise as well.
“As more energy storage projects develop throughout NY and the greater US there is a large opportunity for a variety of manufacturers to enter the industry,” said Brendan Whitman, Supply Chain Program Associate for New York Battery and Energy Storage Technology Consortium (NY-BEST). “The supply chain for energy storage requires an array of inputs including machined, molded, stamped, powder coating, electronic components, foils, raw materials, etc. which need to be done domestically to meet IRA requirements and other incentive programs.”
“With battery manufacturing, recycling, and assembly springing up in NY there is a greater need to pull in local businesses to fill the gaps in the supply chain,” he continued.
Whitman also explained that WNY offers an impressive MEP network, which holds a wealth of information and provides assistance to manufacturers in their respective regions.
Li-Cycle and Viridi Parente are established manufacturers in the area who would be potential partners for energy storage solution and supply chain manufacturers who choose to relocate to NY or who opt to open a secondary facility. Electrovaya, a Canadian-based company, is planning to start assembling lithium-ion battery packs in Jamestown during Q1 2024. By 2025 the company hopes to be producing and testing lithium-ion batteries at that site, their first in the U.S.
The average cost of all energy sources increased in 2023 due to elevated logistics and financing costs. Despite those increases, however, levelized costs for utility-scale solar and onshore wind remain lower than most other sources.
During 2023, BNEF reports show numerous solar and wind projects were initiated across the globe, with more in the planning stages. This is attributed to the low cost for consumables. However, the issue of integration into the existing grid and the storage remain top concerns with less than satisfactory solutions available.
By 2026, BNEF predicts battery pack costs will fall below 11/kWh. Meanwhile, efforts continue to lower barriers to grid integration.
WIND
BloombergNEF released a report in October 2023 that shared expectations of construction of 5.8TW of solar and only 1.9TW of wind by 2030. The report notes the basis of these forecasts are:
Barriers to access, grid infrastructure, and the current design of the power market are three main impediments to the growth of the wind industry currently. These are projected to continue to be issues that could impact the projected growth through 2030.
SOLAR
According to the WEO, “renewables are set to contribute 80% of new power generation capacity to 2030 under current policy settings, with solar alone accounting for more than half of this expansion.”
SEIA’s “30% by 2030: A New Target for the Solar+ Decade,” notes that recent political adjustments have made the goal increase to 30% of all electricity generation in the US by 2030, rather than the 20% goal that was originally set. However, to reach this loftier goal, more than 800,000 workers will need to be added to the solar industry - with a more than $820 billion investment into the US economy.
BATTERY STORAGE
Li-Bridge*, a project created in 2022 with the intention to strategize on the establishment of a robust and sustainable supply chain for lithium battery technology in North America, predicts that by 2030, the United States has the potential to capture 60% of the economic value consumed by U.S. domestic demand for lithium batteries. This could mean up to $17 billion in value-added and 40,000 direct jobs created.
Li-Bridge notes that the top three challenges facing the lithium battery industry in the U.S. are:
Meanwhile, NREL projects that battery storage costs and expansion are difficult to predict, based on current costs and limitations. However, optimistic estimates show a potential of decline in costs by 2025 of up to 3%. By 2050, that number will grow to 67% in cost reduction and 49% in capital cost reduction.
The rapid evolution that is currently in effect has made the projections for the long-term difficult to maintain. Regulations and industry advancements make projections fluctuate accordingly.
[Pro Tip: Western NY is primed to be a crucial part of the growth of the battery storage industry. Check out our resource for more information: Improve Supply Chain Accessibility | Database Creation.]
*NY-BEST was one of the partners involved in the development of this report.
Now is the time to be having conversations on renewable energy and the various supply chains necessary to facilitate the projected growth over the next few years. In order to have a solid plan in place, resources are needed. Retool WNY can direct you to some of the best resources for manufacturers in the area.